type 12 cruise missiles

Japan to greatly extend range of Type 12 anti-ship missiles, modify it for F-15J

On december 18, 2020, the japanese government decided to extend the range of type 12 surface-to-ship missiles (ssm) manufactured by mitsubishi heavy industries. what's more: the missile could be modified into an air-launched variant for the f-15j fighters..

Yoshihiro Inaba 21 Jan 2021

Originally, an extended-range version of the Type 12 SSM was under development and was scheduled to be developed over a five-year period starting in FY2017. This range extension basically did not change the basic character of the Type 12 SSM in any significant way. However, the one decided on this time is different from that.

Significant range increase

According to documents released by the Ministry of Defense (MoD), the increased range will be achieved by extending the size of the wings and the altitude at which the jet engines can operate. In other words, the Type 12 SSM will be able to fly at a higher altitude than before. According to the Sankei Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun , two of Japan’s major media outlets, these improvements will significantly extend the range of the Type 12 SSM from 200 km to 900 km, with the goal of reaching 1,500 km in the future.

Furthermore, the Type 12 SSM did not adopt the same shape as the NSM and LRASM to ensure stealth performance. However, this modification will reduce the Radar Cross-Section (RCS) to ensure such stealth performance. As a result, its appearance will be completely different from the current one. Also, according to the MoD document mentioned earlier, the improved Type 12 SSM will be able to attack not only enemy naval vessels but also ground targets. In addition, the missiles will be updated with data about their targets via satellite communications during their flight, which will improve the accuracy of their attacks.

New SSM for Island Defense by Kawasaki Heavy Industries

The improvement of Type 12 SSM will be done in the period from FY2021 to FY2025. In order to realize this work in such a short period of time, the results of research on the new SSM for island defense (manufactured by Kawasaki Heavy Industries), which is currently under development, will be reflected. This new SSM is scheduled to be developed from FY2019 to FY2023, and according to Sankei Shimbun, its range is targeted at 2,000 km.

Type 12 SSM for F-15J and surface combatants ?

This improvement of the Type 12 SSM is noteworthy for its relationship with the upgrade of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) to equip its F-15J fighter jets with long-range missiles. The Japanese government had planned to upgrade some of the F-15Js operated by the JASDF to replace their radar and electronic warfare equipment with the latest ones, and to enable them to carry JASSM-ER and LRASM. However, due to the higher-than-expected cost of the upgrade, it was not included in the FY2021 defense budget request. The original plan was to complete the upgrade of 20 F-15Js by FY2027, but that schedule is expected to be significantly delayed.

Under such circumstances, the improvement of the Type 12 SSM suddenly emerged, and the fact that its range will be increased to 900 km (similar to that of the JASSM-ER and LRASM) cannot be considered a mere coincidence. In addition, the MoD is looking to launch the modified Type 12 SSM not only from ground, but also from naval vessels and aircraft. In other words, the Type 12 SSM may be developed into an air-launched variant with the goal to integrate it on the F-15J.

Operational concept of the modified Type 12 SSM:

Source: Japanese MoD.

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With eye on China, Japan developing missiles to protect remote islands

Concerned about China and North Korea's growing military capabilities, Japan has begun developing a series of missile systems designed to help defend itself at greater distances and keep enemy forces away — particularly from its southwestern islands.

Although announced just six months ago, the development of these so-called standoff weapons has become a priority for Tokyo, with the Defense Ministry awarding at least eight large contracts since April for the development or mass production of the new systems.

According to Jiji Press, these included a ¥58.4 billion ($419 million) contract with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to start research on hypersonic missiles set to be deployed by 2032, and a ¥22.1 billion deal to develop a weapon that can be equipped with target observation capabilities.

Also included are a ¥200.3 billion contract to develop upgraded hypervelocity glide projectiles for island defense by 2031, and a ¥33.9 billion deal with Kawasaki Heavy Industries to conduct research on a new long-range, maneuverable “island defense anti-ship missile.” A potential prototype of that weapon was unveiled by the company at this year’s DSEI Japan defense exhibition in Chiba Prefecture.

Other awarded contracts relate not only to the series production of an upgraded, ground-launched Type-12 — with deliveries expected in 2026 or 2027 — but also further developments of the missile. These include a range extension to about 1,500 kilometers and the development of air- and ship-launched variants.

As a stopgap measure until the domestic missiles are ready, Tokyo is acquiring 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of about 1,600 km.

Japan also hopes to field a first variant of its hypervelocity glide projectiles, as well as submarine-launched missiles, within the next three to four years.

“All of these contracts have a similar purpose, which is to develop and strengthen Japan’s indigenous capacity to defend itself at greater distances to keep up with the defense improvements — both qualitatively and quantitatively — that China has made in the past decade or so,” said James Schoff, senior director of the U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA.

More precisely, these missiles are being developed to help defend Japan’s Nansei Islands. And insofar as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be accompanied by an attack on Okinawa, these missiles would indirectly contribute to Taiwan's defense, said military expert Yoshihiro Inaba.

But what exactly can these new systems do?

According to Inaba, all have very specific military advantages, although their intended targets can sometimes overlap. For instance, the hypersonic missiles, which are difficult to intercept given their high speeds, could be used to attack enemy ships and ground targets from a safe distance.

The new target observation munition is intended to operate in airspace difficult to penetrate by manned aircraft or large drones due to enemy air-defense systems. The weapon then searches for potential targets, transmitting that information.

The maneuverable hypervelocity glide projectiles are meant to deter China from attempting to seize Japanese territory — especially small islands — as they can be used to destroy enemy air-defenses as well as command-and-control sites in occupied territory. Analysts say these weapons will be extremely difficult to defend against, given their speed and trajectory, and should be highly accurate.

“This means that if China tried to set up an anti-ship missile battery on the Senkaku Islands, for example, it would be vulnerable to these weapons,” Schoff said.

The new systems could also work in tandem. For instance, the hypersonic guided missiles and the target observation rounds have a similar purpose and can operate along with the high-speed glide vehicles.

“Hypersonic weapons, but especially the target observation rounds, could be effective against enemy ships, if they are mobile enough and able to access targeting data midflight,” Schoff said

Finally, the island defense anti-ship missile is a next-generation, stealthy and highly maneuverable weapon designed to attack enemy warships at ranges up to 2,000 km.

Overall, Tokyo is developing missiles that are designed to be stealthy to increase survivability, have longer ranges than previous Japanese weapons, and can be used for a strike if fitted with a warhead but can also be fitted with a surveillance capability or electronic signal jamming technologies, Schoff said.

As Japan develops these stealthy weapon systems, an “enemy would have a hard time holding onto any islands it tries to grab from Japan,” he added.

Japan’s defense doctrine, policy and legal structure still limit the country to self-defense, or limited collective self-defense, and the minimum necessary use of force when other options for defense are not available.

While the weapons would be primarily used to defend Japanese citizens and Self-Defense Forces personnel, the U.S. would also benefit from these weapons by having large areas around Japan well protected, thus allowing U.S. forces to focus elsewhere.

At the same time, the move is significant in terms of reinforcing Japan’s struggling defense-industrial capabilities, as it means that production capacity will now be directly under Tokyo’s control, which Schoff described as “a natural evolution, given the global demand for these systems and Japan’s desire to have more planning predictability regarding cost and system upgrades.”

The challenge, he said, is to sustain interoperability.

Indeed, these weapons need to be compatible with aircraft, ships and ground launchers in service, and ideally be interoperable with U.S. targeting systems for information sharing.

This means that although these weapons are unlikely to be co-developed with other countries, there will be close engagement with U.S. companies and the U.S. military in terms of how these systems work together with others either made with or purchased from Washington, so they can be used in joint operations between the allies.

Given the weapons’ complexity, analysts say the relatively fast planned deployment timeline — within a decade — is a testament to the skills of Japan’s industry but also the level of government funding.

As an example of this shift, Inaba points to the Type-12 anti-ship missile, which until now had a maximum range of only 200 km. Through upgrades, Japan plans to extend this to 1,500 km, and for other missiles, it is aiming for 3,000 km.

“Naturally, development of these will take time,” he said. “But still, it is quite speedy that the upgraded Type-12 will be deployed in 2026-27, even if the maximum range may not be realized by then.”

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The Asahi Shimbun

Japan to include standoff missile unit for enemy ‘counterstrikes’

THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

December 13, 2022 at 18:06 JST

The government will include a “standoff missile unit” capable of long-distance strikes against enemy bases under what it calls “counterattack capabilities” in three key national security policy documents that are now being revised.

The government presented the plan to a meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Dec. 13.

The outline for the three documents said the standoff missile unit will become a core feature of the Ground Self-Defense Force for striking enemy bases that are planning to attack Japan, according to sources.

The unit will comprise seven surface-to-ship missile regiments, two high-speed gliding missile battalions for island protection, and two long-range guided missile troops.

Under the government’s plan, the unit will be armed with U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, Japan-made Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missiles, which are currently being upgraded, and hypersonic guided missiles.

The Type 12 missiles will include those that can be fired from the ground, ships and aircraft.

In addition, the GSDF and the Maritime Self-Defense Force will each have one new “information warfare unit.”

Since Russia started invading Ukraine in February, Japan’s Defense Ministry has been considering establishing warfare units to deal with information spread on the internet, including through social media platforms.

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Japan Announces Plan to Upgrade Its Type 12 Missiles to Fly Higher, Farther for Protection Against Future Sea Invasions

Tokyo now seems determined to rebalance the regional threat environment by improving the reach of its own Type 12 missiles.

A report from  The National Interest  specified that the Japan Self-Defense Force is supposedly only concerned with the Japanese soil's defense and doesn't have any offensive function.

The JSDF, as an island nation, is strongly orientation around maritime defense and naval power as a shield from sea invasions.

Nonetheless, improved sensors, propulsions systems, and communications enable land-based anti-ship missiles to impend targets hundreds of miles far from a shoreline.

Such weapons go beyond coastal defense and creep up ships across the littoral waters' broad swaths. More so, these technologies are changing the future naval conflicts' outlook.

Now, China, Japan's historical rival, and previous Japanese invasions have taken the lead in developing "far-reaching, land-based anti-ship and ballistic missiles," as indicated in this report.

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Type 12 Missiles

Essentially, the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force or Group JGSDF operates the Type 12 anti-ship cruise missile on eight-wheel trucks.

In addition, a Type 12 battery usually comprises four ammunition carriers, four launcher vehicles, two radar vehicles, and two more trucks with communication systems and fire control.

Four batteries are presently concentrated at the Kengun Kumamoto, Japan's 5th Surface-to-Ship Missle Regiment. A pair of additional batteries, with a third one arriving soon, are stationed at Amami Oshima, Ishigaki, and ultimately, Miyako, Islands.

Each Type 12 launcher carries six missiles that weigh 1,500 pounds that are cruising towards a targeted vessel's position through a combination of GPS, inertia, and terrain-contour mapping for navigation.

The missile skims approximately 20 feet above the sea, stimulating a high-resolution active digitally scanned array seeker coming from the AA-4B air-to-air missile, which can identify if a ship is a suitable target and home in for the kill.

Nevertheless, Type 12 has a limitation compared to the latest anti- missile  of China. Its range is just 124 miles.

Plan to Advance Capability with an Improved Model

Japanese warships and airplanes already utilized a variant of this missile, also known as Type 17, with double the range at 250 miles.

However, the JGSDF plans to leapfrog such a capability with the improved Type 12-Kai model, as detailed in a  Naval News  report, which enhances a range of 560 miles.

Furthermore, Type 17 is scheduled for completion of its development by 2025. Furth upgrading to more than 900-mile range is believed probable. That would approximately match the range of the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile.

Nonetheless, higher-flying missiles can be detected at farther distances on radar, providing the targeted ship with more warning to try shooting them down.

The Type 12 Kai has been improved for a decreased radar cross-section to alleviate this. It will possibly be programmed to dive to low altitude to the flight's final stage.

Type 12 is anticipated for deployment on Japan's F-15-derived Mitsubishi F-2 fighters. An air-launched Type 12 could feature a greater range due to starting with a speed at altitude boost and could approach target as well, from less foreseeable vectors,   NewsDesk  indicated in a similar report.

Lastly, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force P-1 maritime patrol planes reportedly can carry eight Type 12 missiles and the present model.

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Japan to Approve Sub-Launched Long-Range Missile Development: Report

The Japanese government has decided to acquire submarine-launched long-range missile capability, The Mainichi reported .

The decision, to be detailed in three security documents, will be approved soon.

The underwater capability is part of Tokyo’s “counter-strike” strategy to take out enemy missile launch sites before attack .

Vertical Launch System 

The country is considering an improved version of the domestically-produced Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missile and the Raytheon Tomahawk cruise missile for the purpose.

The upgraded Type 12 is expected to have a range of 750 miles (1,207 kilometers), while the Tomahawk has a range of 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers). 

The missiles will be launched with a vertical launch system outfitted on top of the submarine’s hull, the Japanese outlet explained.

The country’s 21 submarines currently lack vertical launch capability, necessitating retrofitting.

$37 Billion in Defense Spending

The government is reportedly considering spending around 5 trillion yen ($37 billion) over the next five years to develop the capability, including 800 billion yen ($5.86 billion) on “high-speed glide weapons.”

Tokyo is also planning to acquire 13 aerial refueling and transport aircraft, 5 E2D early warning aircraft, 3 RC2 radio information collectors, and one standoff electronic warfare aircraft by fiscal 2027, according to The Mainichi.

Other planned investments include the deployment of the Patriot surface-to-air guided missile PAC 3 MSE, the new interceptor missile SM6, and two Aegis-equipped ships.

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French missile double punch adds new naval capability for Europe

PARIS — France’s synchronized test firing of naval cruise missiles from a surface ship and a submarine 400 kilometers apart adds a land-attack capability for European navies that may be more difficult for air defenses to counter, analysts told Defense News.

The French frigate Aquitaine and a Suffren-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, sailing near Quimper and Biscarosse, respectively, last week each fired a Missile de Croisière Naval or MdCN that simultaneously hit a target at a military testing site in south-west France, a first for the French Navy.

Coordinated cruise missile strikes could be used to saturate adversary defense systems, raising the chance of a successful hit on defended targets in a high-intensity context, the French Navy said in statement to Defense News. The synchronized double shot of the domestically developed MdCN relied on existing systems and software, the service said.

The French Navy’s coordinated launch from different platforms “is a notable development,” said Nick Childs, senior fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “Being able to carry out strikes from different platforms in different locations at the same time complicates the air-defense challenge for the opponent.”

Whether it’s possible to actually saturate air defenses depends on how many missiles can be launched and the sophistication of the defense, Childs said. He said both France and the U.K. already had the ability to carry out complex strikes through the combination of air-launched missiles and weapons from naval platforms.

The synchronized cruise-missile firing is “something special,” as few navies in Europe perform land strikes, said Sebastian Bruns, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Policy Kiel University (ISPK). He said the exercise is “more of a capability demonstrator,” meant to validate the technology and telegraph the implications to would-be adversaries at the same time.

The political winds surrounding such military capabilities are changing, he added. “Land attack is entering the realm of the imaginable.”

The MdCN is France’s answer to the U.S.-made Tomahawk, and was developed by pan-European missile maker MBDA following a contract in 2006. The naval cruise missile entered service in 2017 and was used operationally by France for the first time in strikes against Syria in 2018.

“This development gives some operational advantage to the French Navy as a single service and more options for French planners,” Childs at the IISS said. “But it is probably not a game-changer in terms of capability.”

The French Navy said it regularly trains on multiple missile launches from different carriers, with trajectory coordination and synchronized missile arrival the most important training goals. Training on joint strikes is also planned with U.S. and U.K. partners, with regular exercises on coordinating trajectories and missile arrivals, according to the Navy.

Missile coordination is an active field of research, and a Google Scholar search for the term finds dozens of studies since 2023, including on neural networks for warhead coordination and ant-colony-based algorithms for missile-flight planning. Of the first 20 studies that show up, 16 are by authors affiliated with Chinese research institutes and companies.

While the U.S. can carry out this type of synchronized firing from different carriers, the U.K. only has this capability on its nuclear-powered attack submarines, according to the French Navy. The U.K.’s Trafalgar-class submarine Triumph fired Tomahawk missiles at Libyan air defenses during Operation Ellamy in 2011.

The U.K. Royal Navy aims to have similar options when its Type-26 frigates enter service with the ability to launch cruise missiles, Childs said. The Navy’s current Type-45 destroyers were originally intended to be fitted with land-attack cruise missiles, but that was never funded, he said.

The long-range capability provided by the MdCN “makes it possible to impose a military threat from the very outset of a crisis, thus influencing the will of competitors,” the French Armed Forces Ministry said in statement last week.

The French naval cruise missile is powered by Safran’s Microturbo TR 50 engine, and has a speed of around 1,000 kilometers per hour and a range of about 1,000 kilometers, according to official data . The 6.5-meter, 1.4-metric ton missile is launched using a first-stage booster that separates before wing deployment, and French submarines can launch the missile from their torpedo tubes in a protective shell that is discarded on breaking the surface.

Firing cruise missiles from a naval platform provides a permanent presence and “undeniable freedom of action” at sea, as there are no diplomatic overflight constraints, the Navy said. The use from a submarine also allows for actions that require greater discretion, it said.

The Netherlands has said it will equip its four current Zeven Provinciën-class frigates with Tomahawk missiles during maintenance in the 2025-2029 period, adding a land deep-strike capability the Dutch navy currently lacks. The Dutch also plan to fit the cruise missiles to their future air-defense frigates and submarines .

Sebastian Sprenger in Cologne, Germany, contributed to this report.

Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.

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What missiles could Israel use in an attack - and can Iran defend itself?

Sky News looks at how Israel might attack, and how Iran could respond.

By Ben van der Merwe and Saywah Mahmood, Data and Forensics Unit

Friday 19 April 2024 09:48, UK

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Israel has launched a strike against Iran in retaliation for Tehran's unprecedented missile-and-drone assault on the country at the weekend.

Experts previously told Sky News Israel was likely to be considering an airstrike on critical Iranian infrastructure, including air bases and nuclear facilities.

Israel is well-equipped for such an operation. The country possesses 39 state-of-the-art F-35 stealth fighter jets, the fifth largest inventory in the world.

Sky News security and defence analyst Michael Clarke says the planes are "pretty well invisible".

"It is rumoured that Israeli F-35s have already been around and about Iranian airspace on surveillance missions," he said earlier this week.

'We are 100% ready'

At a military parade on Wednesday, Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi hailed the attack on Israel and warned against any retaliatory action. "We are 100% ready in all aerial fronts," he said.

"The Iranians have worked hard on improving their air defences in recent years, but how good they are is an open question," says Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Iran is known to possess at least 42 long-range surface-to-air missile launchers, including 32 Russian-made S-300 launchers that it acquired in 2016.

In 2018, however, it was reported that Israeli pilots had travelled to Ukraine to practice evading the S-300, which Ukraine is known to possess.

As a result, Mr Hinz says, Iran has increasingly invested in designing its own air defence systems.

What air defence systems does Iran have?

One of the first such systems, the Sevom Khordad, was reportedly used to down a US Global Hawk drone over the Persian Gulf in 2019.

An updated version of the Sevom Khordad, the Khordad-15, was unveiled in 2019 and is under the command of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards. Iran claims it can engage enemy fighters at a range of 75km.

In 2022, Iran unveiled an updated version of the Khordad-15 called Tactical Hunter. Iran says the system has a range of 120km and is defended by its own short-range missile system.

Two new defence systems were unveiled in February, but it is not yet clear whether they are operational.

The Arman is reportedly able to engage six ballistic missiles simultaneously at ranges of 120-180km, while the Azarakhsh is said to be able to destroy low-altitude targets within a 50km radius.

"I would guess that the Israelis would be quite good at disabling [Iran's air defences] through jamming and electronic warfare, although we don't know for sure," says Mr Hinz.

If Israel wanted to avoid Iran's air defence systems entirely, it could opt to fire a missile from an aircraft outside Iranian airspace.

Neighbouring countries are unlikely to grant Israel permission to use their airspace, but Mr Hinz says they are also unlikely to try and shoot down Israeli aircraft.

Little is known about Israel's Jericho missiles

Israel could avoid violating its neighbours' airspace by utilising ballistic missiles launched from its own territory.

"If Israel carried out a similar ballistic missile attack to Iran, Iran would certainly struggle to intercept it in the same way," says Jeremy Binnie, Middle East and Africa editor at Janes, the defence intelligence company.

However, it's unclear whether Israel has the capabilities to launch a similar attack. Israel's ballistic missile programme, called Jericho, is highly classified.

Few details are in the public domain, but the IISS estimates Israel has about 24 nuclear-capable Jericho II missiles.

"They have submarine-launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles which they almost certainly use for their nuclear deterrent," says Mr Hinz.

"But do they have conventional, precision-guided versions that they could use? We just don't know."

A learning opportunity for both militaries

Of the more than 330 missiles and drones launched as part of Iran's attack, US officials say that around half failed to launch or crash landed.

Just nine missiles hit their targets within Israel, with the rest being intercepted by Israel, Jordan and Western forces.

"This obviously doesn't look very successful from Iran's point of view, but actually they now have a much better idea of Israel's capabilities," says Mr Binnie.

However, Mr Hinz says that Israel will also have used the assault as an opportunity to test its air defences.

"With every use of their missile defence systems, they can improve the algorithms, they can improve the operating procedures," he says.

The Iron Dome , a system of radar-guided missile launchers, has consistently blocked more than 90% of short-range rockets fired towards Israel.

Mr Hinz says that the system has been subject to continuous software updates which have rendered it more effective.

Two other systems, Arrow and David's Sling, are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at much further distances. Arrow is capable of flying at hypersonic speeds and intercepting missiles beyond the Earth's atmosphere.

The US has said that Israel's air defences proved their effectiveness in the attack, which caused no fatalities and only minor damage.

"But how much can we attribute that to the help from the Americans and others?" asks Mr Binnie.

"Could the Israeli Air Force have shot them all down by itself? Well, it might well have struggled, quite frankly."

Iran's attack capabilities have been improving

The attack may also have given Israel a better idea of Iran's offensive capabilities.

On Tuesday, Sky News was shown the remains of an Iranian Emad-1 missile at a military base in Israel.

It is similar to Iran's Ghadr missile, first tested in 2004, but with additional precision targeting capabilities.

Both missiles have a range of more than 1,500 kilometres - putting all of Israel well within their sights.

"I would say that what they fired is basically what they have in their arsenal," says Mr Hinz. "It's not that they restrained [themselves] and just used their less sophisticated weapons."

One possible exception is the Fattah, an Iranian-designed weapon unveiled last year.

"They've shown us testing footage, but we don't know if it's operational," Mr Hinz says.

A rocket motor on the warhead of the Fattah could allow it to conduct evasive manoeuvres outside the atmosphere and to increase the speed of its final descent.

"It's specifically designed to beat Israeli air defences," says Mr Binnie.

Another missile unveiled last year, the Khorramshahr, is still thought to be under development.

"The Khorramshahr has a big old warhead on it, 2,000kg, so in theory that's going to be quick and harder to intercept," Mr Binnie says.

Read more on Sky News: Is it safe to travel to holiday destinations as Middle East tension escalates? Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts

It's impossible to know how these weapons will perform against Israel's air defences until they are actually used.

"The precision they've achieved is quite impressive, but it doesn't really help if your opponent's defensive systems are even more impressive," Mr Hinz says.

For Iran to cause significant damage to Israel, it may have to rely on increasing the quantity, rather than the quality, of its missiles.

"There will be an upper limit at some point where you've got so many ballistic missiles coming in, Israel just can't shoot them all down," says Mr Binnie. "What that point is, we don't know."

The US estimates that Iran's arsenal includes more than 3,000 ballistic missiles, but it's not clear how many it would be able to launch at once.

Mr Hinz says that the logistical effort in launching 120 missiles simultaneously will already have been enormous - likely involving hundreds or thousands of people.

"Can they scale it up? My guess would be that they could, but perhaps not to a large degree."

If Iran wants to overwhelm Israel's air defences, it is likely to rely on the involvement of Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Lebanon is just 115km from Israel's Tel Aviv, whereas missiles fired from Iran must travel more than 1,000km to reach Israel's commercial centre.

"They're just much closer to Israel and so they can use much cheaper systems," Mr Hinz says. "As a result, they have many, many more than Iran."

The CIA estimates that Hezbollah has more than 150,000 missiles in its arsenal.

The risk for Iran would be that Israel responds forcefully against Hezbollah, one of its most valuable allies. In December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to turn the Lebanese capital Beirut "into Gaza".

Ultimately, Mr Hinz says, it could come down to a matter of attrition.

"If this becomes a sustained confrontation, someone is going to run out of missiles first," he says.

"Does Iran have more ballistic missiles, or does Israel have more interceptor missiles? We just don't know."

Additional reporting by Sam Doak.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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North Korea says it tested ‘super-large’ cruise missile warhead and new anti-aircraft missile

Korean Central News Agency released photos showing at least two missiles being fired off launcher trucks on a runway. The missiles in the image were not identified. State media said North Korea’s missile administration on Friday conducted a ‘power test’ for the warhead designed for the Hwasal-1 Ra-3 strategic cruise missile and a test-launch of the Pyoljji-1-2 anti-aircraft missile.

The South Korean and U.S. air forces held joint air drills in Gunsan, South Korea on Friday, where they practiced ways to detect and counter enemy threats.

A TV screen shows an image of North Korea’s missile launch during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Saturday, April 20, 2024. North Korea said Saturday it tested a “super-large” cruise missile warhead and a new anti-aircraft missile in a western coastal area as it expands military capabilities in the face of deepening tensions with the United States and South Korea. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

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South Korean army soldiers pass by the barbed-wire fence in Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea, Friday, April 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

A U.S. Army soldier from the Eighth Army and South Korean army soldiers throw simulated grenades during the Expert Soldier, Infantry, and Medic Badge (E3B) competition at the Rodriguez Live Fire Complex in Pocheon, South Korea, Friday, April 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

U.S. Army soldiers from the Eighth Army compete during the Expert Soldier, Infantry, and Medic Badge (E3B) competition at the Rodriguez Live Fire Complex in Pocheon, South Korea, Friday, April 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Saturday it tested a “super-large” cruise missile warhead and a new anti-aircraft missile in a western coastal area as it expands military capabilities in the face of deepening tensions with the United States and South Korea.

North Korean state media said the country’s missile administration on Friday conducted a “power test” for the warhead designed for the Hwasal-1 Ra-3 strategic cruise missile and a test-launch of the Pyoljji-1-2 anti-aircraft missile. It said the tests attained an unspecified “certain goal.”

Photos released by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency showed at least two missiles being fired off launcher trucks at a runway.

North Korea conducted a similar set of tests Feb. 2, but at the time did not specify the names of the cruise missile or the anti-aircraft missile, indicating it was possibly seeing technological progress after testing the same system over weeks.

KCNA insisted Friday’s tests were part of the North’s regular military development activities and had nothing to do with the “surrounding situation.”

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest in years, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un dialing up his weapons demonstrations, which have included more powerful missiles aimed at the U.S. mainland and U.S. targets in the Pacific. The United States, South Korea and Japan have responded by expanding their combined military training and sharpening their deterrence strategies built around strategic U.S. assets.

Cruise missiles are among a growing collection of North Korean weapons designed to overwhelm regional missile defenses. They supplement the North’s vast lineup of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles aimed at the continental United States.

Analysts say anti-aircraft missile technology is an area where North Korea could benefit from its deepening military cooperation with Russia , as the two countries align in the face of their separate, intensifying confrontations with the U.S. The United States and South Korea have accused North Korea of providing artillery shells and other equipment to Russia to help extend its warfighting in Ukraine.

North Korea conducts cruise missile warhead test on Friday, KCNA says

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What Iran’s attack on Israel revealed about its weapons arsenal

Iran’s first direct attack on Israel overnight Saturday demonstrated the country’s military might and the advances of its domestic weapons program, analysts said, while also revealing the limitations of its arsenal.

With more than 300 drones and missiles launched in a layered onslaught, it was Iran’s largest-ever conventional show of force . That it inflicted only minimal damage was due in part to the choreographed nature of the attack — giving Israel and the United States ample time to prepare air defense systems — but may also be attributed to shortcomings in its medium- and long-range capabilities.

“The operation showed that our armed forces are ready,” Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi told crowds gathered Wednesday in Tehran to mark Army Day. Parades in the Iranian capital featured many of the same munitions used in the attack on Israel.

What Iran used against Israel

110 ballistic

Iranian drones

These drones can deliver small payloads of explosives in self-detonating attacks.

Length: 11.5 ft.

Width: 8 ft.

Max. take off weight: 440 lb.

Max. speed: 115 mph

Range: About 1,100 - 1,500 miles

Its nose contains a warhead and can be equipped with a camera.

Length: 8 ft.

Width: 7 ft.

Max. take off weight: 300 lb.

The Shahed-131 is an earlier version of Shahed-136 with a similar principle of operation. The layout and aerodynamics are also identical.

Ballistic missiles

KHEIBAR SHEKAN

The Kheibar Shekan MRBM is a solid-propellant ballistic missile designed by the IRGC.

Length: 34 ft.

Diameter: 2.6 ft.

Max. range: 900 miles

Warhead weight: 1,100 lb.

Introduction: 2022

The Emad MRBM is an Iranian-designed, liquid-fuel ballistic missile based on Shahab-3.

Length: 54 ft.

Diameter: 4.1 ft.

Max. range: 1,056 miles

Warhead weight: 1,650 lb.

Introduction: 2015

The Ghadr-1 MRBM seems to be an improved variant of the Shahab-3A. It is also referred to as the Ghadr-101 and the Ghadr-110.

Max. range: 1,211 miles

Warhead weight: 1,760 lb.

Introduction: 2007

Cruise missile

Max. range: 1,025 miles

Introduction: 2023

What Iran did not use

The Sejjil-1 Iranian MRBM is a two-stage, solid-propellant, surface-to-surface missile.

Length: 60 ft

Max. range: 1,243 miles

Warhead weight: 1,540 lb.

Introduction: 2011

The Shahab-3 is a MRBM developed by Iran and based on the North Korean Nodong-1.

Diameter: 4.1 or 4.5 ft.

Max. range: 808 miles

Warhead: Single or multiple

with 5 warheads of 617 lb.

Introduction: 2003

Sources: OE Data Integration Network (ODIN),

CSIS Missile Defense Project

120 ballistic

120 ballistic missiles

30 cruise missiles

Overhead view

1,211 miles

1,056 miles

Max. range:

Warhead weight:

Introduction:

Sources: OE Data Integration Network (ODIN), CSIS Missile Defense Project

Raisi hailed the attack as a resounding “success,” but was also quick to qualify the strikes as “limited” and “not comprehensive.”

“If it was supposed to be a large-scale action, nothing would have been left of the Zionist regime,” he said. And if Israel retaliates, Raisi pledged, “they will be dealt with fiercely and severely.”

Yet after analyzing the munitions used in Saturday’s assault and the success of regional defense systems, researchers say it’s unclear how Iran could inflict greater damage on Israel through conventional military means.

“Iran basically threw everything it had that could reach Israel’s territory,” said John Krzyzaniak, a researcher who studies Iran’s missile programs at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. Like other analysts interviewed for this story, he has spent the past several days studying launch videos, imagery of debris and interception information to identify the Iranian munitions.

His conclusion is that Tehran “used some of every system they have.” And experts said it made sense that the Sejjil-1 and Shahab-3 missiles were excluded from the attack.

Shahab-3 “wasn’t used because it’s so old,” said Fabian Hinz, an Iran analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Berlin. “The Sejjil is a bit of a mysterious missile,” he said, adding that Iran has “used it very, very little during maneuvers.”

Other analysts noted the Sejjil was expensive to produce and may no longer be in production.

The quantity of munitions used also provides new insights into Iran’s capabilities. The deployment of over 100 ballistic missiles in a single wave suggests that previous estimates that Iran has about 3,000 ballistic missiles stockpiled are probably accurate, and could even be on the low end.

“If this is just round one of an unknown number of rounds to come, you wouldn’t fire a significant fraction of what you have just in the first round,” Krzyzaniak said.

The firing of over 100 ballistic missiles in the space of a few minutes suggests Iran has at least 100 launchers, he added — a new data point for researchers.

“This shows that Iran has really faced no limitation in domestically producing missiles and launchers,” he said.

Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, the largest of any country in the Middle East, is almost entirely homegrown. In recent years Iran has demonstrated the ability to upgrade some systems, improving their range and precision.

The spokesman for Iran’s armed forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, said the munitions used in the strikes against Israel only represented “a fraction of” the country’s military’s might, according to a statement published on state-run media.

The evolution of Iran’s

missile program

In the mid-1980s, Tehran acquired Scud missiles from Libya, Syria and North Korea and also began adapting the technology for their own missile variants. During the eight-year war with Iraq, Tehran countered primarily with Scud B missiles, which have a range of 185 miles.

Shahab-1 , 186 miles

1994 to 2001

Iran developed its own version of the Scud B, the Shahab-1, and from 1994 to 2001 fired it at bases in Iraq used by the opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq.

A new generation of missiles

After 16 years without firing new missiles, Iran showed its technological advances in 2017 striking on an ISIS command center with 6 Zolfaghars with a range of 430 miles. In early 2024, it launched strikes against Islamic State targets in northwest Syria using Kheibar Shekan missiles that travelled 745 miles from Iran to Syria.

Fahteh 110 , 181 miles

Fahteh 313 , 310 miles

Zolfaghar , 435 miles

Qiam 1 , 497 miles

Kheibar Shekan , 900 miles

IRAN ATTACKS

Against ISIS

6 ballistic missiles

Deir ez-Zor, Syria

Against Kurdish dissidents

7 ballistic missiles

Abu Kamal, Syria

Against Oil fields and facilities

18 drones + 7 cruise missiles

Abqaiq, S. Arabia

Khurais, S. Arabia

3 cruise missiles

Against U.S. forces

Erbil, Iraq

1 ballistic missile

Ain Al Asad, Iraq

15 to 22 ballistic missiles

Against “Israeli strategic centers”

At least 10 ballistic missiles

73 launches + at least 20 drones

and suicide drones

Sulaimaniyah,

Against IS targets

Harem, Syria

Israeli “spy headquarters”

Against Jaish ul Adl

Balochistan,

Missiles and drones

Against Israel

120 ballistic missiles,

170 drones,

Sources: United States Institute of Peace, CSIS, IDF

The evolution of Iran’s missile program

IRAN TARGETS

KNOWN MISSILE

Zolfaghars,

Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia

Khurais, Saudi Arabia

Zolfaghars and

potentially

Ballistic missiles and suicide drones

Sulaimaniyah, Iraq

Kheibar Shekan

Balochistan, Pakistan

Missiles and drones against Jaish ul Adl

170 drones, 30 cruise missiles

Before the attack on Israel, Iran’s most significant use of ballistic missiles was in 2020, after a U.S. drone attack killed the powerful Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.

Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military bases in Iraq, one in the country’s west and one in the north. While there were no fatalities, dozens of U.S. service members suffered traumatic brain injuries.

Iran also used ballistic missiles in strikes this year on Pakistan, Syria and Iraq.

Iranian ballistic

missile ranges

1,240 miles

Locations of Iranian

missile strikes

INDIAN OCEAN

But the attack on Israel suggests that many of Iran’s munitions are of low quality. Israel’s military said 99 percent of the missiles and drones launched by Iran were intercepted or failed to launch.

“We saw that accuracy and precision are a work in progress,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who has written extensively about Iran’s missile program. “These weapons alone won’t win a war for Iran.”

Iranian drones made up the first wave of the attack. Cheap, effective and easy to produce, Iranian drones have been used in attacks across the Middle East for years. Iran has also supplied drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine , where they have been deadly.

During the attack on Israel, the slow-moving drones were probably deployed to occupy air defenses and allow more advanced munitions to get through. All the drones were shot down before entering Israeli airspace, the Israel Defense Forces said.

Ali Hamie, a Lebanese military analyst, said Iran had probably gleaned important lessons about Israel’s aerial defenses. Commentators on Iranian state television have made similar points.

“It could be a testing attack,” Hamie said, “and the Iranians got what they want. Making it past the air defenses is not only a symbolic victory, but real victory.”

One of the few missiles to make it through the interceptors hit an Israeli air base in the Negev desert. Images of the strike were run on loop on many state-run Iranian broadcasters in the days after the attack. Israel characterized the damage as minor.

General location of missile strikes

that reached the ground.

Beirut—

Populated areas

Haifa—

Tel Aviv—

—Amman

—Jerusalem

An emad missile

was found here.

The barrage of

missiles from Iran

included targeting

the Nevatim

General location of

missile strikes that

reached the ground.

Mediterranean

General location of missile

strikes that reached the

In addition to analyzing Israel’s air defenses, Tehran will probably also be studying the problems with its missile systems that reportedly led to failures at launch and in flight, according to Afshon Ostovar, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in California.

“Another attack could be more effective,” he said. But ultimately the kind of approach demonstrated in Saturday’s attack “is not really sustainable over a long-term conflict.”

Even if Iran changed the tempo of attacks and adjusted the munitions used, “they would still have to launch quite a lot of stuff for just a few [munitions] to get through,” he said.

Some Iranian officials have suggested they have held back their most dangerous weapons.

“We are prepared to use weapons we have never used before. We have plans for every scenario,” said Abolfazl Amoui, a parliamentary national security spokesman, in an interview with Lebanese broadcaster Mayadeen.

But analysts say it’s unlikely that any one type of munition could be a game changer. Rather, it’s more likely Iran would use the same kinds of munitions in a future attack, but in a different way: giving less warning, or launching the barrage in concert with allied militant groups in the region. The country’s proxy forces, from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, played little role in Saturday’s assault.

As Israel mulls its response , Tehran has warned that a counterattack would come in “a matter of seconds.”

“Iran will not wait for another 12 days to respond,” Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said Monday.

While the United States and Israel have celebrated the thwarting of Saturday’s attack, analysts are urging humility.

“The number of munitions it took to repel the attack was enormous, costly and could be difficult to replicate,” said Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Israel may have gotten lucky and Iran may have gotten very unlucky.”

William Neff and Suzan Haidamous contributed to this report.

Israel-Gaza war

The Israel-Gaza war has gone on for six months, and tensions have spilled into the surrounding region .

The war: On Oct. 7, Hamas militants launched an unprecedented cross-border attack on Israel that included the taking of civilian hostages at a music festival . (See photos and videos of how the deadly assault unfolded ). Israel declared war on Hamas in response, launching a ground invasion that fueled the biggest displacement in the region since Israel’s creation in 1948 .

Gaza crisis: In the Gaza Strip, Israel has waged one of this century’s most destructive wars , killing tens of thousands and plunging at least half of the population into “ famine-like conditions. ” For months, Israel has resisted pressure from Western allies to allow more humanitarian aid into the enclave .

U.S. involvement: Despite tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some U.S. politicians , including President Biden, the United States supports Israel with weapons , funds aid packages , and has vetoed or abstained from the United Nations’ cease-fire resolutions.

History: The roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and mistrust are deep and complex, predating the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 . Read more on the history of the Gaza Strip .

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• Six months of the Israel-Gaza war: A timeline of key moments April 7, 2024 Six months of the Israel-Gaza war: A timeline of key moments April 7, 2024

US sends land-attack missile system to Philippines for exercises in apparent message to China

China has accused the United States of “stoking military confrontation” with the recent deployment of a powerful missile launcher capable of firing weapons with a range of up to 1,600 kilometers to exercises in the Philippines.

The US Army’s Mid-Range Capability (MRC) ground-based missile system arrives in a region on edge following a series of dangerous Chinese-Philippine face-offs in the South China Sea, during which Philippine ships have been targeted with water cannons, injuring several Filipino sailors.

It’s the first-ever deployment of the MRC missile system, also known as the Typhon system, to the Indo-Pacific theater, and it comes amid a series of US-Philippine military exercises, including the largest-ever edition of the annual bilateral Balikatan drills beginning Monday.

The US Army has not said how long the Typhon system will remain in the Philippines, but its involvement in the series of joint exercises between the two treaty allies, the first of which began on April 8, sends a signal the US can put offensive weaponry well within striking distance of Chinese installations in the South China Sea, the southern Chinese mainland and along the Taiwan Strait, analysts say.

The Typhon system is capable of firing the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6), a ballistic missile defense munition that can also target ships at sea at a range of 370 kilometers (230 miles), according to the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

It also can fire the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, a maneuverable cruise missile with a range of 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles), according to the CSIS.

According to Beijing its presence in the region increases the risks of “misjudgment and miscalculation.”

During a regular news briefing last week, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian accused the US of seeking a “unilateral military advantage,” and underscored Beijing’s strong opposition to the deployment.

“We urge the US to earnestly respect other countries’ security concerns, stop stoking military confrontation, stop undermining peace and stability in the region, and take concrete actions to reduce strategic risks,” Lin said.

The US Army is calling the deployment, which began April 11 for the Salaknib exercise, a “landmark” in its regional capability.

Diplomatic fallout

The apparent diplomatic fallout comes as attendees from 29 countries, including the commander of the US Pacific Fleet, attend a two-day Western Pacific Naval Symposium, which began in the eastern Chinese port city of Qingdao on Sunday.

The attendees will discuss “maritime peace, maritime order based on maritime security cooperation and international laws, and global maritime governance,” according to Chinese state-run Xinhua news agency.

Those are the same rules Washington and Manila accuse Beijing of ignoring with  aggressive Chinese actions that have injured Filipino sailors and damaged vessels around disputed features in the South China Sea.

The 1951 mutual defense treaty between the US and the Philippines – the oldest such US pact in Asia-Pacific – stipulates both sides would help defend each other if either were attacked by a third party.

In brief comments to CNN on the sidelines of the gathering, US Adm. Stephen Koehler said: “I think it’s a great opportunity for all navies to get together and discuss all the issues.”

China’s missile advantage

Analysts say the deployment of the Typhon missile battery is the first signal of US plans to address what has long been an advantage for Beijing in the region.

“This in some way ‘equalizes’ the prior situation where (Chinese) missiles have threatened US forces along the First Island Chain (which includes the northern Philippines, Japan and Taiwan), and even further eastward along the Second Island Chain centering on Guam,” said Collin Koh, research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

A 2021 report for the US Army’s professional journal Military Review puts the current missile advantage of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) in stark terms.

“The conventional arm of the PLARF is the largest ground-based missile force in the world, with over 2,200 conventionally armed ballistic and cruise missiles and with enough antiship missiles to attack every US surface combatant vessel in the South China Sea with enough firepower to overcome each ship’s missile defense,” Army Maj. Christopher Milhal wrote.

While the Typhon can’t bring those kinds of numbers into play for US forces, its mobility represents a problem for Chinese mission planners — giving it important deterrent value, analysts say.

In announcing the Typhon deployment, the US military noted how the system was delivered to the Philippines via an 8,000-mile, 15-hour flight from Washington state by a US Air Force C-17 cargo jet.

Analysts don’t expect the Typhon system to be permanently based in the Philippines, but Koh said the ability to move the batteries to a range of “pre-surveyed launch sites” around the region on short notice increases their survivability and challenges relatively new and untested Chinese intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and targeting capabilities.

Whether the Typhon’s likely temporary status mitigates the fallout remains unknown. but China has previously reacted furiously to missile deployments in what it sees as its backyard.

Writing in the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance Blog, analyst Rupert Schulenberg noted that in 2016, when South Korea agreed to the deployment of a THAAD defensive missile system on the Korean Peninsula, “Beijing responded with an unofficial economic boycott that cost South Korea’s economy $7.5 billion in 2017 alone.”

The current deployment of the Typhon was something that would not have even been an option for the US military until 2019. Development of ground-launched missile systems of the type were banned under the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the US and the Soviet Union.

But the US formally withdrew from the treaty in 2019, with then-President Donald Trump “citing Russian noncompliance and concerns about China’s intermediate-range missile arsenal.”

Balikatan exercises begin

Meanwhile, the US and the Philippines kicked-off the largest of their series of joint exercises Monday, with the three-week Balikatan drills — Tagalog for shoulder-to-shoulder — involving thousands of military personnel.

A report from the official Philippine News Agency said Manila would use the annual exercises to showcase its military’s most advanced systems, including a missile frigate, light fighter jets, close-combat support aircraft and Black Hawk helicopters.

Philippine officials previously indicated the naval portion of the exercise would for the first time extend beyond the 12-nautical-mile limit of Philippine waters — and into the country’s exclusive economic zone, some 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from Philippine shores, though no exact route has been provided.

It will also include French naval participation in a group sail from Palawan Island, according to Philippine officials.

Palawan, which sits between the South China Sea and the Sulu Sea, is about 200 kilometers from Second Thomas Shoal, a contested feature in the Spratly Islands that has been the site of numerous face-offs between Philippine and Chinese coast guard vessels.

This story has been updated.

CNN’s Steven Jiang in Qingdao contributed to this report.

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