Added: Porsha Medley - Date: 29.07.2021 13:44 - Views: 39433 - Clicks: 9124
This is the fourteenth in our series of posts by students on the job market this year. People are afraid of HIV. Moreover, people around the world are convinced that the virus is easier to get than it actually is.
The median person thinks that if you have unprotected sex with an HIV-positive person a single time, you will get HIV for sure. One way of interpreting these big overestimates of risks is that HIV education is working. The classic risk compensation model says this should be causing reductions in unprotected sex. Some people are so scared of HIV that they are fatalistic — they respond to higher risks by having more sex instead of less.
This offsets the decreases How easy to contract hiv sexual activity by the rest of the population, leading to a small average response. I begin by showing that this fatalistic responses are actually rational, as long as the perceived risk is high enough. If the probability that you are doomed no matter what gets high enough, the marginal cost of having more sex gets really small. This means that if people think the risk of contracting HIV is high enough, the effect of risk beliefs on sexual activity will actually switch s from negative classic risk compensation to positive fatalism.
I test this prediction by running a field experiment with a probability sample of sexually-active adults from Southern Malawi. Half of the villages in the study were randomly ased to receive information about the HIV transmission rate. Teaching people the true risk of HIV transmission represents a sharp break with typical HIV messaging, which usually emphasizes that risks are really high. The information treatment led to a large decrease in the risk people perceive of contracting HIV from unprotected sex.
I use these changes to estimate that the average HIV risk elasticity — the percent change in sexual activity for a given percent change in perceived risks — by two-stage least squares. I estimate that the mean elasticity is This approach begins by estimating two semiparametric regressions of sexual activity as a function of baseline risk beliefs, one each for the treatment and control groups.
Taking the difference of the estimated curves gives me a reduced-form treatment effect estimate for each value of baseline beliefs. Dividing the reduced-form graph by the first-stage graph yields elasticity estimates for each point in the baseline risk belief distribution. The result, shown below, is a graph of the risk belief elasticity of sexual activity for each value of initial risk beliefs.
The graph shows that the classic risk compensation story applies to most people — the s are negative for most of them. But for people whose initial risk beliefs were over 0. At the high end, the elasticity is positive 2. I show that the fatalistic part of the population is more sexually experienced and more likely to think they are currently HIV positive than the typical person.
This finding is made more stark by the fact that the overall spread of HIV is dominated by small groups of high-activity people — which my suggest could well be fatalistic.
My findings also have important implications for the study of risk compensation more generally. We typically study behavioral responses to changes in actual or perceived risks by assuming the function is monotonic.
I show that that regression — even if we use instrumental variables or the like to get around endogeneity concerns — may be misspecified. Empirical analyses of risk compensation should allow for the possibility of fatalism whenever perceived risks are extremely high. Jason Kerwin is a Ph. Candidate in Economics at the University of Michigan. More details about his research can be found on his personal web. He also maintains a blog, Ceteris Non Paribus. Great stuff!
I've wanted to see precisely this paper for a while. I think it's morally opprobrious that we exaggerate the risks to people, and it's very interesting to also see that this backfires through the ly only theorized fatalism channel. I was 12 when magic Johnson came out that he wasHIV positive. I am now 37 and sex still scares me and I can honestly say I barely get any enjoyment out of it.
This was helpful I'll relax a little bit more. Talk to your doctor about pre-exposure prophylaxis PrEP. This is a HIV prevention pill that you take daily. Published on Development Impact.
Maybe not. Guest post by Jason Kerwin. Share Tweet Share Comment. Gautam Rao. December 31, Ana Andrade. December 13, March 21, Berk Ozler. March 22, You should consult a physician by visiting a health clinic in your area.
October 19,How easy to contract hiv
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